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you selected mostly benefited from the noise, and being lucky the first time is unrelated to being lucky the second time. (That's one way to characterize luck.

The selection process includes not just academics but also sport, social service and character requirements, completely inaccessible to the kid who has spent his entire childhood locked in a room being drilled on calculus. Regarding that quote about Rhodes Scholars since no one has mentioned it yet, I will mention the phrase: "regression to the mean". If, from a diverse population, you select a subpopulation with high scores on trait X measured by some noisy test, and you then re test them sometime later (so that the noise is generated by fresh randomness the second time), you will likely find that they score worse. This is because it is likely that the subpopulation Stan Smith Halo Blue

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How much "noise" is there, and what can be done abou.

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or the intrinsic quality is zero, then the regression will be almost complete. To illustrate the second case, you might imagine a population rolling six sided dice, and a silly researcher selecting all those who rolled sixes and being astonished that their average had dropped to 3. 5 on the second roll. Adidas Stan Smith Decon Black

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´╗┐nced that college Stan Smith Adidas Shoes in its current form has become a waste of time and talent for the smartest students. This is a startup blog. Yes, building a Farnsworth Hirsch fusor is not amazing for a grad student or well resourced adult. "Invented a shopping cart, sold it to Yahoo, invests small amounts of money (less than a decent car) several in startups per year" "wrote bingo software for teachers, has a blog" "developed a website to share photos" "with a cofounder, developed a website to help people find things on the Internet". I think you're right, it was just Clinton. In fact, Rhodes Scholars tend not to be the child prodigy types at all.

)The regression to the mean effect is obviously proportional to the ratio of "noise" to "intrinsic qualities". If the amount of noise is close to zero, then the regression will be small; if the noise is gigantic Adidas Stan Smith Baby

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